智库、智库产品及智库竞争视角下的智库治理研究

建设中国特色新型智库需要加强智库治理。笔者结合智库内外部治理，提出智库治理的结构模型及影响因素。智库治理包括对智库产品、单一智库以及智库竞争的治理，这三类治理相互影响、相互强化。智库治理问题的本源性因素在于智库产品具有政策导向性、不完全性、难以精确衡量性，而条件性因素在于智库产业环境欠佳、智库人力资源缺乏。可以认为，智库治理应当从内外部两方面入手，围绕建立完善的智库产品及智库评价体系，建立完善公正、公开的多元市场竞争与需求机制，依据相关法律政策，明确智库及智库从业人员的权利、责任、义务、处罚等事项，而培养智库专业人才则应采取多样性、综合性的治理措施。总之，中国智库应当以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，加强对智库本身及智库产业、市场的治理，才能真正实现为中国的发展蓝图而赋予中国智库的新要求、新任务，真正有力促进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化建设。     

京津冀文化消费的影响因素与结构特征

在京津冀协同发展战略中,文化创意产业在取得初步发展成果的同时,还依旧面临着不少亟待解决的问题。采用问卷调查法实地走访采集区域居民文化消费数据,并进一步通过决策树算法进行数据挖掘,发现京津冀文化消费的影响因素及结构特征,据此提出打造区域共同文化品牌、保障居民收入持续平稳增长、针对青少年文化消费市场创新营销模式、培养其正确的文化价值观及文化创新能力等改进措施,从而优化推动京津冀文化消费市场协同发展的路径,打造互联互通、开放统一的区域文化消费市场,使区域居民文化消费需求成为促进文化产品供给的市场新动力。     

“百年未有之大变局”之哲学分析

当今世界正处于“百年未有之大变局”中。这是中国共产党对于世界新的时代特征的全新、科学和准确的研判。“百年未有之大变局”这一重大论断，具有深厚的马克思主义哲学的本体论基础、认识论基础、矛盾论基础和历史观基础。作为科学世界观与方法论，马克思主义哲学的辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义为我们深刻认识和精准把握“百年未有之大变局”的深层本质和哲学依据提供了重要的认知性引导、方法论基础和实践智慧支撑。     

日语“空间性状”的时间映射制约研究

日语空间性状的时间映射具有局部映射性和选择性，映射具有负向语义选择偏好；形成“水平线性空间>垂直线性空间>立体三维空间”维度制约等级。上述制约特质是时空隐喻概念相似性与语言类型特质共同驱动促成的。概念相似性是其内在驱动力，相似者易于映射，反之则受制约性强；日语的时间性特质是其负向语义选择偏好的外在驱动力。     

Radical alternative conceptualizations of the classical welfare state? Contrasting the United Kingdom and the Netherlands with Norway

In many countries, new, broad, and normative “conceptions of society” gained prominence that represent fundamentally different discursive alternatives to the classical welfare state. We present two political projects that contain radical alternative conceptualizations of the classical welfare state, the “Big Society” in Britain and the “Participation Society” in the Netherlands, and contrast these with Norwegian developments, where no such a radical alternative conceptualization of the welfare state can be found. We show that the British and Dutch political projects were attempts to replace the welfare state, whereas there is no comparable big idea about a radical overhaul of the welfare state in Norway. Our analysis contributes to a better understanding of a fundamental shift in welfare state reform, namely a radical reconsidering of the ideational and normative foundation that defines and underpins what the welfare state is or should be.     

A Shiny Update to an Old Experiment Game

ABSTRACT

Games can be a powerful tool for learning about statistical methodology. Effective game design involves a fine balance between caricature and realism, to simultaneously illustrate salient concepts in a controlled setting and serve as a testament to real-world applicability. Striking that balance is particularly challenging in response surface and design domains, where real-world scenarios often play out over long time scales, during which theories are revised, model and inferential techniques are improved, and knowledge is updated. Here, I present a game, borrowing liberally from one first played over 40 years ago, which attempts to achieve that balance while reinforcing a cascade of topics in modern nonparametric response surfaces, sequential design, and optimization. The game embeds a blackbox simulation within a shiny app whose interface is designed to simulate a realistic information–availability setting, while offering a stimulating, competitive environment wherein students can try out new methodology, and ultimately appreciate its power and limitations. Interface, rules, timing with course material, and evaluation are described, along with a “case study” involving a cohort of students at Virginia Tech. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

以人民为中心的理论认识与制度安排

以人民为中心的思想理念拓展了传统意义上的人民概念和创造历史伟业的依靠对象。依靠人民创造历史伟业，发展生产力，提供丰富的物质财富、精神财富和生态财富。构建劳动力资本化为劳动者股份的制度安排，合理界定劳动收入和资本收入的边界，保障劳动贡献归劳动者所得，资本贡献归资本所有者所得，为人民实现美好生活需要提供制度和收入上的保障。以人民为中心的思想理念，是对《共产党宣言》的每个人自由发展思想的继承和发展，是马克思主义中国化时代化大众化的理论成果。     

Pre-arrest drug use and associated risk factors among incarcerated offenders in China

ABSTRACT

Past research has consistently reported a higher rate of drug use before arrest among incarcerated inmates than that of the general population. However, there is a lack of either qualitative or quantitative research on this topic under the Chinese setting. Drawing upon survey data collected from 1,518 inmates in a Chinese province, this study attempts to fill in the research gap by assessing the connection between risk factors associated with pre-arrest use. Roughly a quarter of all inmates in the sample had the experience of drug use before arrest. Regression analysis suggested that impulsivity, volatile temper, and perceived prevalence of drug use in neighborhood were significantly related to drug use among inmates. Two control variables include offense type and stable job, were also found to be significant predictors of drug use. Implications for research and policy were highlighted in the end.     

The impact of economic,social and cultural conditions on educational attainments

This paper aims at investigating the effect of Economic Social and Cultural Status (ESCS) on the educational performances of students, using two waves of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) survey of OECD (2009, 2012). The analysis is conducted at student level for all countries included in the PISA sample. The estimates are based on the Conditional Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), applied for the first time in the Slack Based Measure (SBM) version. This method allows a detailed evaluation of the additional effort the students should do when they are operating in an ESCS that has a comparative disadvantage. The unprecedented use of a conditional non-radial model of efficiency, provides evidences of a significant effect of the ESCS on performances, with a strong heterogeneity among students, and countries. It follows that some problems with education may not be due to the education systems themselves, but to the economic, social and cultural gaps, which determine a persistence of inequality of opportunity. Thus, public policies are needed to foster virtuous paths to reduce disparities among students with different socioeconomic background both between and within systems.